Fact or Fiction
From time to time I share my working papers into validating a trading idea.
A great pitfall most traders fall into is believing what they are told, what they read and or what they see about trading.
My philosophy is to welcome all ideas and not to prejudice any thoughts/comments you may receive about the markets.
However, I strongly encourage everyone to become cynics when it comes to the market and trading ideas. I say this for the simple reason that most ideas written, said, floated or touted about trading don’t work. Period. Or they may appear to work on the limited data set or selective markets/charts shown. However, when applied to a universal diversified portfolio of markets they fall over. They have a negative sloping equity curve racing to the bottom right hand corner of your chart.
So welcome all ideas. Be open to all thoughts. However as you do so, be sure to receive the idea as a cynic, and reserve your judgment until you have independently validated the idea as either having a positive expectancy, or negative expectancy.
So the question we all should be asking ourselves when reviewing a market/trading idea is whether the idea is FACT or FICTION?
Working Paper: The January Barometer
Working Paper: When is it Right to Break the Rules? My Natural Gas Trade.
Working Paper: Reversal Pattern 2: Candlestick patterns
Working Paper: Why the Surprise in Jump in Volatility?
Working Paper: Combining the Decennial Pattern with the Turtles in 2017
Working Paper: Reversal Patterns 1: Traditional TA101 patterns