A Quick Update: I’m reaching an age where I want to do a little less! To help me ease into a lighter pace in 2026 I decided to removed Key Level, Key Swing and Key Exhaustion from my site.However, I’m not fully retiring just yet—I’ll still be hosting my annual Workshops and keeping IndexTrader and Key Breakout active for you. Thank you for supporting me as I slow things down a bit!
Strategy Development – A History of Failure
It’s an unfortunate reality that the field of technical analysis is better known for its failures than its successes. With over 90% of active traders losing it paints an unflattering picture.
Its landscape is littered with more failed methodologies and trading strategies then you can hope to count. Approaches that only ever looked good on a few well-chosen charts. Curve fitted and data mined strategies with too numerous and too overly optimised variables. Methodologies without any anchored reasoning. Techniques absent of any shred of evidence they had ever worked in the past, let alone hope to work in the future. Failure wherever you look.
Despite the marketing hype it’s rare to find methodologies that survive past their release date. Good, out-of-sample, robust performance is a scarce commodity in the world of trading. Unfortunately, many traders believe the answers are found in complexity and shun the idea of simplicity, to the detriment of both their wallets and soul.
Although my models are not perfect, they do have a tradeable edge, and as you’ll see on my site they do have plenty of positive out-of-sample performance past their release dates, a very rare commodity in the field of strategy development.
Education and Trading Models
Education and trading models are two of the same.
“Model” is just a nice capsule to encase a complete approach to trading, from identifying times where it’s appropriate to trade (the set-up), to where a trader should buy and sell (the entry), to where they should exit if they’re wrong (the stop) to where they should the leave the market with their profit (the exit).
So although you’ll see references in books and on the internet about “models”, “strategies”, “systematic”, “mechanical”, “algorithmic”, “quantitative”, “robots”, “methodologies” etc it is all one and the same.
They’re just referring to a complete approach to trading, from set-up to entry to stop to exit.
They’re just an alternative clever “label” to describe;
- trading education, or
- trading knowledge or
- trading methodology or simply
- “how to”.
I began educating others in 2001 with the release of my first model IndexTrader.
IndexTrader (2001)
I released IndexTrader in 2001.
IndexTrader was originally called SpiTrader.
In 2003 I renamed SpiTrader IndexTrader.
SpiTrader was a short-term index trading model that consisted of eight patterns.
The reason why I renamed the model IndexTrader is an interesting story and one that traders will be pleased to learn as it goes to support the robustness of the model’s simple methodology.
In a nutshell, I originally developed SpiTrader to trade the Australian SPI200 index futures contract. Following its release, I received numerous emails enquiring whether SpiTrader worked on other indices. I decided to collect the futures data and run SpiTrader over the Hang Seng, Ftse, Dax and E-Mini SP500 contracts.
To my surprise and amazement, SpiTrader made money (hypothetically) on all those markets!
After I settled down following this discovery I decided to look at how each of the eight individual pattern performed on the international indices. What it revealed was that over half the patterns performed well across all indices while the remainder only worked on the SPI. This led me to believe the non-performing patterns were uniquely SPI orientated.
I then asked myself a question. If I had the choice between trading patterns that worked across multiple markets or trading patterns that only worked on a unique market, which patterns would I prefer to trade?
It didn’t take me long to realise I would prefer trading patterns that were robust across multiple markets, especially if those indices were “out-of-sample” markets.
Consequently, I decided to remove the poor performing patterns, add four markets and rename SpiTrader IndexTrader to both reflect it’s robustness over out-of-sample global indices and to give the model a wider appeal to international index traders.
SpiTrader’s transformation into IndexTrader validated the robustness of its simple methodology.
You see, the majority of trading systems are developed with the benefit of observing a particular market/s they’re designed to trade. Traders look backward, observe a particular behaviour and then design a system to “capture” that behaviour. Without observing a market traders would not be able to develop an idea to test. This is what people refer to as “curve fitting”. Curve fitting will always exist, however experience traders look to minimise it while less experience traders leverage it, over tweaking variables to produce picture perfect equity curves.
In addition, traders fall into the trap of “data mining”, looking to trade their strategies on the best markets available. I had inadvertently done that with SPI, but in my defence, it was the only market I traded at the time!
In addition, what is extraordinary and therefore pleasing for traders who are considering IndexTrader, is that the model was designed without any “curve fitting” or “data mining” as it was developed solely for a single market, the Australian SPI200 index futures contract, but now trades a global portfolio of nine indices;
- SPI
- Nikkei
- Hang Seng
- Dax
- Stoxx50
- Ftse
- E-Mini Nasdaq
- E-Mini Dow Jones and
- E-Mini SP500
So as you can see the story behind IndexTrader is that it came about by accident and not by design and the benefit of this is that it provides a best practice out-of-sample test and validation of the model’s simple, yet robust methodology.
IndexTrader’s patterns became the foundation model behind my newsletter IndexALERT which I published for 20 years between 2004 and 2024.
IndexALERT (2004)
I began publishing IndexALERT in 2004.
I stopped publishing IndexALERT after 20 years in 2024.
IndexTrader’s patterns were the foundation model behind IndexALERT.
Over the years of publishing IndexALERT I modified, refined and improved IndexTrader’s patterns.
I was a little different in the newsletter/tip sheet publishing business as;
- Every recommendation was actionable/tradable. I didn’t sprout opinions or generalisations. IndexALERT was not an “infotainment” newsletter.
- I traded everyone of my own recommendations and
- I shared all my fills with subscribers, for both the winners and losers!
In Australia, I believed I was the only newsletter publisher of an active trading newsletter/tip sheet who actually traded their own recommendations and shared their fills.
After publishing the newsletter for 20 years I stopped publishing IndexALERT in January 2024 when I decided to cut back what I shared with the public.
[Please note: At the beginning of 2024 I decided to stop publishing IndexALERT when I made a decision to cut back on what I shared with the public.]
Key Level (2008)
I began developing Key Level in 2007 following a poor 6-month performance with IndexALERT.
By March 2007 IndexALERT was into its 6th month of drawdown. As you can imagine it wasn’t a comfortable time however it got me thinking about diversifying my trading. I wanted to diversify my trading across all three dimensions:
– timeframe,
– strategy and
– markets
For timeframe, I wanted to diversify and compliment my short-term index trading so I choose medium-term.
For strategy, I wanted to diversify and complement my predominately short-term mean reversion strategies so I choose trend-trading.
For markets, I wanted to diversify and compliment my index portfolio so I choose the currency markets.
I was particularly focused on developing a sound medium-term trend trading strategy as I believed the enduring bull market in equities at the time would prolong the continuing contraction in market volatility, which was impacting IndexALERT’s results.
So I got thinking about developing a medium-term trend trading methodology for currencies.
I concentrated my focus and energy on developing a retracement trend trading approach.
Those efforts resulted in Key Level which I released in 2008.
Note: As part of my effort to simplify and slow down I made a decision 2026 to no longer make Key Level available.
Key Breakout (2009)
Following Key Level’s release in 2008, and thinking about the motivation behind it, I decided I should be proactive and give thought to developing another strategy that could help diversify me against possible strategy degradation that may happen in the future. I thought it best to get on the front foot rather then be reactive if my combined index and currency trading struggled.
At the time I was both trading global indices and currencies, and I was happy to continue with the same portfolio. So I thought it best to diversify my currency trend trading by developing an alternative and complementary trend trading methodology.
Looking at market structure I knew I was capturing one section of market behaviour with Key Level. Consequently, I decided to focus my concentration on developing a sound breakout trend trading methodology.
These efforts resulted in Key Breakout which I released in 2009.
Key Swing (2010)
Following Key Breakout’s release, I was into the swing of developing medium-term trend trading methodologies.
With Key Level and Key Breakout, I had two significant areas of market structure covered for trading the currencies, entering trends following a retracement (Key Level) and entering trends following a rally (Key Breakout).
What I didn’t have was a mean-reversion swing trading methodology.
So during 2009, I applied myself to the task of developing a swing trading strategy.
These efforts resulted in Key Swing which I released in 2010.
Key Level, Key Breakout and Key Swing were all developed for the currency markets.
Note: As part of my effort to simplify and slow down I made a decision 2026 to no longer make Key Swing available.
Key Exhaustion (2010)
Following Key Swing I developed Key Exhaustion.
Key Exhaustion was originally called Dual Reversal Point.
I released Key Exhaustion in 2010.
While Key Swing was designed to capture significant mean-reversion swings that occurred inline with the trend I didn’t have a strategy for identifying trend terminations.
I didn’t have a top picking or bottom picking system.
I know its never ideal to try to catch a falling knife however it was a part of market structure that I wasn’t trading.
Key Exhaustion became my knife catching and top picking strategy.
Like Key Level, Key Breakout and Key Swing, Key Exhaustion was developed for the currency markets.
Note: As part of my effort to simplify and slow down I made a decision 2026 to no longer make Key Exhaustion available.
PortX³ (2020)
In 2020 I released my proprietary approach on how to independently and objectively construct micro, or “small”, portfolios.
A methodology designed to help traders avoid the trap of “data mining” and to help them objectively select smaller portfolios more suitable for accounts with less risk capital.
I taught PortX³ for the first time during my 2020 Workshop.
In my opinion its a game changer for private traders who can’t afford to trade a large portfolio of markets.
Model “X” (2023)
In 2023 I released Model “X”.
Model “X” is a short-term counter-trend mean reversion strategy with an average 2-day holding period.
One great appeal of Model “X” is its uniqueness to my other models where there is no overlap between signals and trades.
This zero correlation makes Model “X” a perfect fit for a portfolio of strategies.
A perfect fit that enhances diversification between strategies.
Model “X” is only available through my Workshops.