Index, Forex and Diversified Trading

using simple mechancial solutions

Brent Penfold trading since 1983
and helping others since 2001!

International Best Seller! Now translated into;
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Fact or Fiction
From time to time I share my working papers into validating an idea about trading.

A great pitfall most traders fall into is believing what they are told, what they read and or what they see about trading.

My philosophy is to welcome all ideas and not to prejudice any thoughts/comments you may receive about the markets.

However, I strongly encourage everyone to become cynics when it comes to the market and trading ideas. I say this for the simple reason that most ideas written, said, floated or touted about trading don't work. Period. Or they may appear to work on the limited data set or selective markets/charts shown. However, when applied to a universal diversified portfolio of markets they fall over. They have a negative sloping equity curve racing to the bottom right hand corner of your chart.

So welcome all ideas. Be open to all thoughts. However as you do so, be sure to receive the idea as a cynic, and reserve your judgement until you have independently validated the idea as either having a positive expectancy, or negative expectancy.

So the question we all should be asking ourselves when reviewing a market/trading idea is whether the idea is FACT or FICTION?

Working Paper: Reversal Pattern 2: Candlestick patterns

Working Paper: Why the Surprise in Jump in Volatilty?

Working Paper: Decennial Pattern in 2017

Working Paper: Reversal Patterns 1: Traditional TA101 patterns

Disclaimer: Active trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all people. The high degree of leverage provided by futures can work against you as well as work for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your risk capital and therefore you should not trade money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with active trading and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts. Past performance is no assurance of future performance.

Under Chapters 6D and 7 of Australia’s Corporations Act 2001 I am authorised to carry on a financial services business to provide general advice on futures to Australian wholesale clients. Accordingly any opinions, conclusions and or other information expressed by myself do not contain personal advice. Visitors will need to with, or without the assistant of a person licensed to give personal advice, to determine whether any general advice expressed by myself is appropriate for them given their particular needs, financial situation and investment objectives.